The Santa Cruz Real Estate Market Trends Report

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Trends at a Glance

	Apr 2017		Previous Month	Year-over Year
Median Home Price	+0.1%	$810,000	$809,000	+5.5%	$768,000
Average Sales Price	+4.5%	$927,523	$887,587	+6.3%	$872,298
No. of Homes Sold	+23.3%	127	103	-13.6%	147
Pending Properties	+2.4%	172	168	+152.9%	68
Foreclosures Sold	0.0%	4	4	+100.0%	2
Short Sales Sold	-100.0%	0	1	-100.0%	1
Active Listings	+22.0%	288	236	-6.8%	309
Active Foreclosures	0.0%	2	2	-60.0%	5
Active Short Sales	-100.0%	0	1	N/A	0
Sales Price vs. List Price	-0.3%	99.9%	100.2%	-0.3%	100.1%
Average Days on Market	-3.2%	45	46	+33.5%	34

Market MomentumEnlarge Graph

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Market Report Commentary

Prices Continue Rising

The median prices for single-family, re-sale homes and condominiums in Santa Cruz County were up again in April, year-over-year. In fact, the median price for condos reached a new all-time high last month. The median...

Slower Growth, Faster Inflation, Stable Rates

Apr. 28, 2017 -- Tight supplies of existing homes for sale are squeezing some buyers into the market for new homes. In March, sales of new homes rose by 5.8 percent to a 621,000 annual rate. This was the second...

Santa Cruz County Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year Median home prices increased by 5.5% year-over-year to $810,000 from $768,000. The average home sales price rose by 6.3% year-over-year to $927,523 from $872,298. Home sales fell by 13.6%...

Prices & SalesEnlarge Graph

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Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph

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Days of InventoryEnlarge Graph

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Sales To DateEnlarge Graph

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Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph

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Slower Growth, Faster Inflation, Stable Rates

Apr. 28, 2017 -- Tight supplies of existing homes for sale are squeezing some buyers into the market for new homes.

In March, sales of new homes rose by 5.8 percent to a 621,000 annual rate. This was the second best figure in about 9 years' time and it wouldn't take much of an upward revision (just 1,000) to make it number one over that stretch.

Sales of new homes have been in a long-running (if notchy) uptrend since a May 2010 nadir of 280,000 (annualized) units sold. Even with nearly seven years of nearly steady gains, there remains plenty of room for growth, as even before the boom of the last decade, sales routinely ran at about 850,000+, including during the brief recession in 2001.

Despite the increase in sales, inventories of built and ready-to-sell units crept up to 268,000 during the month, some 5.2 months of supply at the current rate of sale. This is a fairly normal level and contrasts starkly with just 3.8 months of available existing inventory.

The spurt in sales engendered some higher prices, too -- after two months of lower costs year-over-year, prices in March were 7.2 percent above the cost of a new home sold in March 2016. If a potential 20% tariff on Canadian lumber goes into effect, those costs will be passed along to consumers, and prices here will rise even further.

If the pattern of first-quarter weakness followed by faster growth in the second quarter and beyond holds true, we will likely see a decline in rates.

Eventually, warming data will begin again the drumbeat for a move at the June Fed meeting. Right now, and even with a Fed get-together next Tuesday and Wednesday, we are still in what is a "sweet spot" between the major quarterly Fed meetings, but at the bottom of it -- about six weeks past March and about six weeks before June.

With recent meetings as a guide, this is usually a place in time that has seen the lowest mortgage rates of the meeting-to-meeting period. As such, we may be at or just past this point, and may start seeing more firming than not in the weeks ahead.

Market MomentumEnlarge Graph

Market Report Commentary

Prices & SalesEnlarge Graph

Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph

Days of InventoryEnlarge Graph

Sales To DateEnlarge Graph

Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph

Prices Continue Rising

NUGGETS

Slower Growth, Faster Inflation, Stable Rates

Santa Cruz County Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year

Compared To Last Month

Market Report Commentary

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Prices Continue Rising

NUGGETS

Slower Growth, Faster Inflation, Stable Rates

Santa Cruz County Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year

Compared To Last Month